Historical Volatility

What is HV?

Measures how much a stock's price fluctuates over time, based on standard deviation of returns.

Think of it like this

Like measuring how bumpy a road is - higher volatility means a wilder ride with bigger ups and downs.

Formula

HV = StdDev of Daily Returns × √252 (annualized)
  • Daily Returns: Percentage change from day to day
  • Standard Deviation: Measure of return dispersion

Why it matters

  • Helps assess risk in a position
  • Higher volatility = higher risk and potential reward
  • Important for options pricing
  • Compare to implied volatility for trading edges

What's a good value?

< 20%
Low
Stable, defensive stock
20-40%
Moderate
Typical for most stocks
40-60%
High
More risk, growth stocks
> 60%
Very High
Speculative, small caps

Real-world example

A stock with 30% annualized volatility might move about 2% on a typical day.

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